As photovoltaic technology ventures into space, the industry eagerly awaits ‘affordable tickets,’ how will this trillion-dollar track break through?

Cailian Press, February 1 (reporter Guo Songqiao) – “It’s not just about sending photovoltaic panels into space; it’s about ensuring that photovoltaic technology can withstand the ultimate test of the space environment.” Wang Zechun, General Manager of King Kong Photovoltaic, told reporters from Cailian Press. In his view, the currently heated “Space Photovoltaic” concept in the A-share market should not be simply understood as speculative hype but as a systematic industrial leap driven by commercial aerospace, AI computing power, and the photovoltaic technology revolution.

Since the end of 2025, the “Space Photovoltaic” sector in the A-share market has shown a strong performance against the market trend. Behind this lies the blueprint outlined by Tesla CEO Musk for ‘deploying 100GW of solar arrays in space annually,’ along with the soaring global AI computing power consumption, which together have ignited the imagination of a ‘space data center.’

However, reporters from Cailian Press found during their investigation that while capital is eager for the “star ocean” narrative, the industry is facing severe realities in terms of technical verification, launch costs, and ecological coordination. This track, which seems to lead to a trillion-dollar market, still faces multiple ‘canyons’ that must be crossed.

An Ambitious Vision: From Satellite Power Supply to Space Energy Infrastructure

Space photovoltaics is not a new concept. Traditionally, it refers specifically to ‘solar wings’ on satellites, belonging to the high-barrier, small-batch aerospace components market. However, its narrative has now changed.

“The current discussion has long surpassed the scope of charging satellites,” a broker analyst who has long been following the aerospace field told reporters from Cailian Press. “The core logic is that commercial aerospace has lowered the threshold for reaching space, while the extreme cost-reduction technology of terrestrial photovoltaics may solve the cost curse of space energy’s ‘noble materials’ (gallium arsenide).”

Reporters from Cailian Press learned during their investigation that the new narrative is divided into two layers: the near-term vision involves tens of thousands of low-orbit internet satellites forming constellations, driving steady growth in space battery demand; the long-term vision involves providing energy for ‘space data centers’ deployed in orbit, which some institutions see as the ultimate solution to breaking through Earth’s energy consumption and heat dissipation bottlenecks.

Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Institute for Energy Policy Studies at Xiamen University, pointed out in an interview with reporters from Cailian Press: “China’s photovoltaic manufacturing capabilities are globally leading, and extending into space is a natural direction for technological advancement. Space offers excellent solar resources, theoretically far exceeding ground-based power generation efficiency, and its prospects are beyond doubt.”

According to estimates by Dongwu Securities and other institutions, considering only the nearly 100,000 low-orbit satellites already planned globally, the market scale for solar wings reaches hundreds of billions. If future space computing centers enter the deployment phase, the market potential will rise to the trillion-dollar level.

The technology roadmap is characterized by a ‘tripod’ structure.

Currently, space photovoltaic technology is advancing along three parallel paths: triple-junction gallium arsenide (GaAs), P-type heterojunction (HJT), and perovskite tandem cells.

GaAs boasts an efficiency exceeding 30% and a lifespan of 15 to 20 years, making it the ‘premium choice’ for space stations and deep-space exploration. However, its cost is as high as 1,000 yuan per watt, with global annual production capacity limited to approximately 150 megawatts, which cannot support the deployment of constellations at the ten-thousand-satellite scale.

Perovskite cells, with their high theoretical efficiency, lightweight properties, and excellent flexibility, are regarded as ‘game changers.’ However, their mass production and long-term in-orbit stability have yet to be verified.

Currently, the perovskite cell developed by Shanghai Foxi Xin Kong Company, installed on ‘Tianyan 24 Star,’ has accumulated nine months of in-orbit data.

However, according to information obtained by reporters, the industry generally believes that it will take at least 5 to 10 years before they can be used for primary missions.

Against this backdrop, P-type HJT is considered the optimal solution during the commercial transition period. Since 2021, Kingstone Photovoltaic has focused on HJT technology, accumulating significant expertise in thin-wafering (achieving thicknesses of 50–70 micrometers), high-efficiency CVD, and low-temperature printing. These technologies, originally developed for ground-based applications to overcome intense competition, unexpectedly align with the complex demands of space applications for ‘lightweight, radiation-resistant, and sufficiently reliable’ solutions.

The symmetrical structure of HJT facilitates switching from N-type to P-type, which exhibits stronger radiation resistance. Our years of thin-wafering technology can significantly reduce weight, perfectly matching the space application’s ultimate pursuit of ‘power-to-weight ratio,’ explained the technical director of Kingstone Photovoltaic. This approach of using mature industrial system products to replace ‘space-grade premium solutions’ is seen as key to unlocking commercial-scale markets.

P-type silicon substrates possess excellent radiation resistance, robust hole mobility, and strong defect self-repair capabilities,’ explained the technical director of Kingstone Photovoltaic. Compared with traditional PERC and TOPCon technologies, HJT cells deliver higher power output, and their low-temperature processes and symmetrical structures are more suitable for thin-wafering, making them better adapted to the space environment.

According to industry insiders, the pricing of space photovoltaic products reaches 20 to 40 times that of terrestrial photovoltaics. Kingstone Photovoltaic has already received sample requests from multiple domestic and international solar wing manufacturers and satellite companies. After completing its bankruptcy restructuring in 2025, Kingstone Photovoltaic’s fundamentals are expected to improve significantly. The company will assess the feasibility of a new round of capacity expansion based on current industry trends and order-to-capacity alignment.

Notably, leading companies such as Risen Energy and JinkoSolar are also exploring P-type HJT or perovskite technology routes.

Harsh Reality: The Initial Industry Challenge of ‘Easy Sampling, Difficult Deployment in Space’

Compared to the grand narrative, the actual progress of the industry appears cautious and specific.

Reporters from Cailian Press have learned that based on its years of expertise in heterojunction (HJT) technology, Kingstone Photovoltaic has developed a P-type ultra-thin HJT cell designed to withstand space radiation and extreme temperature fluctuations. The company is now closely collaborating with domestic and international solar wing companies on orders and sample testing.

The core focus of the company at this stage is sampling, testing, and optimization,” stated the technical director of Kingstone Photovoltaic to Cailian Press.

However, despite product prices reaching tens of times higher than those of terrestrial photovoltaic products, orders remain pending. “This is still a very nascent market without unified international standards, and resources for simulation testing are scarce. The primary task for everyone is to prove the long-term reliability of their products in simulated environments,” explained the technical director of Kingstone Photovoltaic.

The more fundamental bottleneck lies in how to deploy these technologies in space.

“The biggest gap lies in launch costs.” Bai Guolong, a commercial space observer and member of the Chinese Society of Astronautics, told Cailian Press directly, “After the recovery and reuse of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, the cost per kilogram of payload may have dropped below $2,000. However, domestic equivalent services remain several times, or even an order of magnitude, higher.” This implies that even if Chinese photovoltaic companies develop competitive space batteries, the entire satellite or energy module after integration would still bear a significantly higher ‘freight’ burden.

Bai Guolong admitted to Cailian Press that although current discussions about the prospects of space photovoltaics are highly optimistic, the practical implementation—from technical validation to large-scale engineering—will still require a considerable amount of time. It hinges on high-capacity, low-cost, flight-scheduled rockets and deep integration of AI computing power with space technology. Over the next 5 to 10 years, low-orbit internet communication satellite constellations will likely remain the predominant type of satellite launches domestically.

Moreover, the absence of a high-frequency, flight-scheduled launch approval mechanism makes rapid, low-cost orbital verification in space a distant aspiration. “We sincerely hope for more opportunities for experimental payloads to validate real space environment performance using more data. However, this requires coordination among multiple parties, including rockets and satellite platforms,” stated Wang Zechun.

This ‘capacity anxiety’ directly constrains the speed of technology validation. Currently, domestic companies that wish to conduct on-orbit experiments often need to queue for ride-share opportunities, with a waiting period as long as one to two years. ‘But commercial spaceflight does not wait,’ said the technical director of Jingang Photovoltaic, ‘What customers want is a solution that can be used right now.’

In terms of ecosystem building, photovoltaic enterprises are starting to actively engage with the aerospace industry chain. ‘We are not just selling batteries; we hope to establish in-depth cooperation with satellite manufacturers, rocket companies, and even future on-orbit service providers,’ said Wang Zechun. The company has been actively reaching out to domestic and international commercial space partners and does not rule out seizing opportunities to invest in key segments of the industrial chain.

Meanwhile, there is an increasing call for policies and standards. During its research, Caixin reporters learned that the industry expects national-level attention to this interdisciplinary field from a policy perspective and urges authoritative institutions to lead the development of a white paper on testing standards for space photovoltaic components, laying a foundation for the orderly growth of the industry.